How AI Is Reshaping The Future Of Ecommerce
The Dawn of Agentic Commerce
Maybank Investment Bank Research has highlighted the emerging trend of ChatGPT Agentic Commerce, identifying both significant opportunities and potential risks for the e-commerce sector. While this new AI-driven model is still in its nascent stages and will require time to achieve significant scale, its long-term implications for online retail are poised to be profound.
A Double-Edged Sword for E-Commerce
The rise of AI agents like ChatGPT presents a dual-sided impact. On one hand, there is a clear opportunity for AI to become a powerful traffic driver. Similar to how Google Search, social media, or YouTube direct consumers into the shopping funnel, AI can seamlessly guide users toward purchasing decisions.
On the other hand, a substantial risk looms. These AI agents could evolve into standalone distribution platforms for merchants. This would allow sellers to potentially bypass established marketplaces, creating pricing pressure as the agents could charge lower commissions than the incumbents.
The Uneven Impact on Market Players
According to Maybank, the competitive effects of Agentic Commerce will not be felt equally across the e-commerce landscape. Smaller platforms, which primarily function to generate demand, could face the most significant threat. Their survival may depend on their ability to quickly integrate with or partner with these emerging AI agents.
In contrast, larger, established players with comprehensive end-to-end capabilities are in a much stronger position. Companies that control everything from logistics networks to seller management infrastructure are better shielded because replicating these complex physical and operational moats is a far more challenging endeavor for new entrants.
Proactive Strategies and The Power of Infrastructure
While AI can streamline the discovery and checkout processes, the fundamental backbone of e-commerce—logistics, inventory management, and fulfillment—remains a complex and entrenched system. This limits the extent to which AI-only models can fully displace conventional platforms. Furthermore, it's anticipated that major players may proactively respond by developing their own Agentic Commerce solutions. This would ensure they remain at the center of the consumer journey and mitigate the risk of being disintermediated by platforms like ChatGPT.
How Does Agentic Commerce Work
ChatGPT's Agentic Commerce is designed to let AI actively assist users in purchasing products directly within a chat interface. Through an instant checkout feature, a user can simply tap “Buy,” confirm their payment and shipping details, and complete the transaction without ever leaving the ChatGPT environment.
This system is built to be versatile, working across various formats by linking consumers to e-commerce platforms like Etsy or Shopify, or connecting them directly with merchants. The order and fulfillment processes are still managed by the sellers using their existing systems. This is all built on the open-source Agentic Commerce Protocol, which uses Stripe for secure payment processing and ensures order details are passed safely between the AI and the merchant. While commission rates have not been disclosed, Maybank suggests they will likely be lower than the 10% to 20% take-rate typically charged by major global e-commerce platforms.
A Look at the Competitive Landscape
Observing the global market, competitive dynamics are always in flux. In Brazil, for instance, Amazon has intensified its competition with Sea’s Shopee by offering free fulfillment services. However, Maybank views the competitive risks for Shopee as relatively contained in this case, noting that Amazon holds only about 10 percent of the Brazilian e-commerce market and primarily focuses on the premium segment. This view on market dynamics is consistent with other analyses, as Maybank also sees minimal impact from developments like Sea’s Shopee seller commission raise. As Agentic Commerce is still emerging, developments will be monitored closely.
