AI in E Commerce ChatGPTs Role in Online Shopping

AI Traffic vs. Actual Sales: A Reality Check

A recent working paper from researchers at the University of Hamburg and the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management reveals a key insight for online retailers: while ChatGPT is generating some referral traffic, it significantly lags behind most traditional marketing channels in converting shoppers into buyers. The study, highlighted by Emarketer, found that ChatGPT's performance in driving actual sales trails nearly all conventional sources except for paid social media.

The Dominance of Traditional Search

The data paints a clear picture of the current landscape. According to OpenAI research, only a mere 2.1% of conversations on ChatGPT involve "purchasable products," a figure just slightly higher than those related to "greetings and chitchat." This suggests users primarily view the platform as an informational tool rather than a shopping destination. Furthermore, the German researchers found that organic search traffic from Google is approximately 200 times greater than referral traffic from ChatGPT. This massive gap is supported by Emarketer's principal analyst, Nate Elliott, who notes that generative AI engines currently capture only 3.3% of the time users spend on online product discovery.

A Glimmer of Growth: Future Potential for AI Commerce

Despite its current limitations, the study uncovered promising signs for the future of AI-driven commerce. Over the 12-month research period, from August 2024 to July 2025, both conversion rates and revenue per session originating from ChatGPT showed a steady increase. This trend suggests that as users grow more accustomed to large language models, their trust and willingness to act on shopping recommendations may also rise. Upcoming platform enhancements, such as potential Instant Checkout features and third-party app integrations, could further solidify ChatGPT’s future role as a viable shopping assistant.

Strategic Advice for Retailers

Given these findings, what's the takeaway for e-commerce businesses? Emarketer advises a balanced approach. Retailers should begin the process of optimizing their websites and product listings for discovery on generative AI platforms. However, they should not pull back on their investment in traditional search engine optimization (SEO). For the foreseeable future, the majority of shoppers will continue to find and purchase products through established platforms like Google.