ChatGPT Forecasts US Economy Under Prolonged Shutdown

With the federal government shutdown extending beyond a month, hopes for a swift resolution are fading. The current political climate suggests a prolonged impasse, prompting a critical question: What would happen to the U.S. economy if the shutdown stretched into 2026? To explore this scenario, we turned to ChatGPT for its projections, which paint a concerning picture of the potential economic fallout.

Immediate Economic Impact

According to ChatGPT, the longer a government shutdown continues, the more severe its consequences become. In the short term, millions of Americans would face difficulties accessing essential government services and benefits. A significant portion of the federal workforce would be furloughed, leading to a loss of regular income for many families.

From a macroeconomic perspective, even a shutdown lasting only until the beginning of 2026 could have a substantial effect. ChatGPT estimated that this scenario would result in a U.S. GDP loss of approximately $70 billion to $90 billion, which represents about 1% of the total annual GDP.

Long-Term Projections for a Six-Month Shutdown

If the shutdown were to extend for six months, through March 2026, the economic damage would escalate significantly. ChatGPT provided a range of outcomes, from best-case to worst-case scenarios, across several key economic indicators:

• GDP Loss: A potential hit ranging from $140 billion to as high as $380 billion.
• Peak Unemployment: The unemployment rate could climb to between 4.1% and 5.1%.
• Consumer Spending: A projected drag on consumer spending of 0.2% to 0.7%.
• Stock Market: The S&P 500 could see a decline of 2% in the best-case scenario or a more severe drop of 10% to 12% in the worst case.

The Fallout of a Nine-Month Shutdown

A shutdown lasting nine months, or through the middle of 2026, would push the economy into even more dangerous territory. The projections become increasingly grim:

• GDP Loss: The hit to GDP could be anywhere from $220 billion to a staggering $560 billion.
• Peak Unemployment: The unemployment rate could rise further, peaking between 4.3% and 5.7%.
• Consumer Spending: The drag on consumer spending would worsen, falling between 0.3% and 1%.
• Stock Market: The S&P 500 could experience a loss between 4% and an alarming 15%.

What Human Experts Say

Economists and financial analysts widely agree that a protracted shutdown poses a grave threat to the U.S. economy and the public. The Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) warned that the country could lose $15 billion in GDP for each week the shutdown continues, as noted in a report by Politico. The CEA also highlighted the risk of disruptions to Social Security, air travel, and nutritional support programs.

Furthermore, economists from S&P Global pointed out another critical danger. A long-term suspension of government data collection would force policymakers at the Federal Reserve to make crucial decisions on interest rates and economic growth without access to the latest data on employment and inflation, increasing the risk of a policy misstep.