OpenAI Trillion Dollar Trajectory Shaking Up Big Tech
By Britney Nguyen
The creator of ChatGPT, OpenAI, is setting its sights on disrupting multiple major markets, including search, AI hardware, and software as a service, according to Melius Research analysts. While much of the current focus is on ChatGPT, which has established OpenAI as a frontrunner in the AI race, the company's ambitions extend much further. In April, the artificial intelligence startup secured a $300 billion valuation, a figure some analysts believe could soar into the trillions as it targets markets currently dominated by larger tech competitors.
The Multi Trillion Dollar Vision According to Melius Research
Melius Research analysts stated in a recent note that OpenAI "has its sights set on much more" than just its popular chatbot. They foresee the company disrupting "huge markets like search, devices, cloud and [software as a service]."
Targeting Tech Giants Google and Beyond
ChatGPT has achieved what analysts call "'verb' status," similar to how Google became synonymous with online search. OpenAI is now considered "easily Google's biggest rival in search and AI in general," the Melius team noted. The competition is also heating up in the cloud sector, where OpenAI's service for creating AI agents will go head-to-head with tools on Google's Vertex AI platform. Furthermore, the ambitious Stargate supercomputer project, a reported $500 billion joint venture to build AI infrastructure in the U.S., positions OpenAI to compete with hyperscalers in processing AI workloads. Melius Research concluded that from its advances in search and cloud, "the vast majority of Google's market cap is in OpenAI's sights."
An Apple Inspired Ecosystem Play for AI Devices
OpenAI's strategic acquisition of io, the startup from former iPhone designer Jony Ive, announced in May, signals an "ecosystem play to mimic Apple strategy of controlling the apps, the software and the device – all in an effort to create the best user experience," analysts said. This deal involves building AI devices that go beyond traditional smartphones. OpenAI Chief Executive Sam Altman reportedly expects to sell "hundreds of millions" of these new devices from their launch. The Melius analysts suggest that if Altman achieves anything close to this goal, OpenAI's value will skyrocket, making comparisons to Apple less far-fetched. They also pointed out Apple's current difficulties in reliably integrating generative AI into iOS, suggesting a window of opportunity for another player to lead in AI. This strategic direction is further highlighted by OpenAI's acquisition of Jony Ive's startup for a reported $6.5 billion.
User Base as a Key Differentiator
While Google might advance with its Gemini AI models and Android ecosystem, Melius analysts believe that if OpenAI successfully innovates with new hardware, it could be a significant value driver. The comparison to Apple extends beyond hardware. "OpenAI doesn't need to have the best specs, just the most users and enough capital to keep investing," the analysts argued. "The analogy is akin to Apple, who may not have had the best specs or even the best software on its smartphone at any given time, but it had access to the best App Store." ChatGPT boasts high popularity, especially among younger users, with approximately 400 million weekly users, according to OpenAI Chief Operating Officer Brad Lightcap. "Those users will not only become thriving consumers who can subscribe to premium tiers and consume ads, but they'll also want their employers to integrate OpenAI into their enterprise," Melius said.
AI Agents Revolutionizing the SaaS Landscape
The Melius team reiterated their view that AI is poised to transform the software industry, particularly software as a service (SaaS). They predict that "Agents will increasingly do the cumbersome tasks once destined for Salesforce, Workday and Adobe – while AI will also take away your relationship with the interface." Adobe's creative tools also face threats from Meta and Google, which have released AI-powered image and video generators. OpenAI's ChatGPT Enterprise already includes its Sora and DALL-E video and image generators. "The whole SaaS sector market cap is about $3.8 trillion, and we see AI giants with their agents and tools eating up a lot of it," the analysts stated.
Microsofts Stake A Lucrative but Evolving Partnership
Regarding Microsoft Corp., its 49% "minority economic interest" in OpenAI could be "one of its greatest 'call options,'" according to analysts, though the relationship between the two is described as "confusing and evolving." Despite being OpenAI's largest financial backer, Microsoft is also becoming a competitor. Alongside the Stargate announcement, the terms of their agreement were updated, including OpenAI's ability to source more compute capacity for training and running its models. Microsoft's stake in OpenAI's profits is reportedly capped at an estimated 10x return on its investment, or about $130 billion, before OpenAI achieves artificial general intelligence (AGI). However, with the definition of AGI being fluid, "the agreement calls for Microsoft to share in profits until the $100 billion level is achieved, which could be quite beneficial to shareholders." Even if OpenAI competes with Microsoft in the cloud market for AI workloads, the startup "will likely continue to boost Azure's AI and non-AI businesses in the near-term, as it clearly needs Azure to perform training and inferencing for the next few years while Stargate ramps."
Skyrocketing Revenue Projections and Market Impact
OpenAI itself projects its revenue to exceed $125 billion in 2029, a significant leap from the $4 billion reported in 2024. This forecast "resembles what we have seen from Nvidia's Data Center segment, which grew from $3 billion in fiscal 2020 to $115 billion in fiscal 2025," representing a 108% compound annual growth rate, analysts noted. ChatGPT is anticipated to contribute about $50 billion to this $125 billion revenue forecast, with AI agents likely adding around $30 billion—an estimate that Melius Research believes "may ultimately prove conservative." They see a massive total addressable market for AI agents, as these agents are expected to "drive a broad-based acceleration in global productivity." On Monday, an OpenAI spokesperson confirmed to CNBC that the company has reached $10 billion in annual recurring revenue, nearly double the $5.5 billion in ARR calculated for the entirety of the previous year. This figure reportedly includes sales from its ChatGPT enterprise offerings and API access, but excludes one-time deals or licensing revenue from Microsoft.
