Dogecoin Price Dips Amid Musk Trump Political Drama

An AI-driven analysis of 42 real-time indicators shows Dogecoin in a bearish phase, with its price dropping significantly amid political chatter involving Elon Musk and Donald Trump. The popular meme coin is currently testing a crucial support zone as market volatility increases.

DOGE Under Pressure A Technical Breakdown

Dogecoin's price has taken a notable hit, declining 5.58% to $0.16241 within a daily trading range of $0.16128 to $0.17296. This volatility is underscored by its position below all major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), including the 20-day ($0.16855), 50-day ($0.17932), 100-day ($0.19104), and 200-day ($0.20457). This indicates strong selling pressure across all timeframes.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 43.57, nearing oversold territory but not yet at extreme levels. This suggests that while selling pressure is intense, DOGE could see further declines before any reversal. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator presents a mixed picture. The MACD line is slightly above zero (0.00176), hinting at some underlying bullish momentum, but the negative histogram (-0.00733) points to a strong bearish divergence that warrants close observation.

The Musk vs Trump Effect Political Drama Hits Crypto

The recent public friction between Elon Musk and Donald Trump has injected a new layer of uncertainty and volatility into the Dogecoin market. Speculation around the coin's role and agency in this political context has moved its price drivers away from typical meme-based rallies and introduced a form of systematic risk.

Donald Trump on whether or not he’ll deport Elon Musk amid their feud: “I don’t know. We’ll have to take a look. We may have to put DOGE on Elon, You know what DOGE is? DOGE is the monster that might have to go back and eat Elon.” — Pop Base (@PopBase)

While Elon Musk's own comments have previously sparked interest in potential meme coin booms, the current political environment has largely overshadowed any bullish sentiment.

It is obvious with the insane spending of this bill, which increases the debt ceiling by a record FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS that we live in a one-party country – the PORKY PIG PARTY!! Time for a new political party that actually cares about the people. — Elon Musk (@elonmusk)

A Glimmer of Hope The Ascending Triangle Pattern

Despite the bearish short-term outlook, technical analysts have identified a large ascending triangle pattern on DOGE's weekly charts. This is traditionally a bullish structure, suggesting a period of accumulation at higher lows against a consistent resistance level. The pattern had shown DOGE holding trendline support around $0.17, but the recent price drop challenges this thesis. The key resistance for this pattern is in the $0.25–$0.29 range. The next few weeks will be critical to see if bulls can reclaim the triangle's support or if bears will continue to push the price lower.

Key Support and Resistance Levels to Watch

For traders, several key price levels are in focus. Immediate support is found at the recent low of $0.16128, with a more significant support zone between $0.15500 and $0.16000. This area is critical for determining DOGE's near-term direction.

If these levels fail, further major support can be found at $0.14000-$0.15000 and then $0.12000-$0.13000, which correspond to historical accumulation zones and previous cycle lows.

On the upside, initial resistance is the 20-day EMA at $0.16855. A more formidable resistance cluster lies between the 50-day EMA ($0.17932) and the 100-day EMA ($0.19104).

Market Metrics and Social Sentiment A Tale of Two Stories

Confirming the selling pressure, DOGE's 24-hour trading volume surged by 42.16% to $908.02 million. With a market capitalization of $24.33 billion, this high volume supports the bearish interpretation of the recent price action, suggesting institutional repositioning rather than accumulation.

In stark contrast to the technical data, social sentiment remains overwhelmingly positive. Data from LunarCrush shows 83% positive sentiment, with high social dominance and engagement. The community continues to discuss long-term bullish scenarios, including the potential for DOGE to reach $1. This disconnect between strong community optimism and weak technical reality is a common characteristic of the DOGE market.

90-Day Dogecoin Forecast Three Potential Scenarios

Looking ahead, analysts see three primary paths for Dogecoin over the next 90 days:

• Bull Case (30% Probability): If the political tensions resolve and DOGE breaks out from its ascending triangle, a recovery toward the $0.25–$0.29 resistance is possible, representing a 54–79% upside.
• Base Case (50% Probability): Continued political uncertainty and a failure to hold key support could lead to an extended correction, with prices dropping to the $0.12–$0.14 range, a 14–26% downside.
• Bear Case (20% Probability): A severe escalation of negative catalysts could push DOGE down to the $0.10–$0.12 support zone, a potential 26–38% decline from current levels.

Ultimately, Dogecoin is at a critical juncture where political drama, technical weakness, and resilient community hope are converging. The $0.155–$0.160 support zone will be the key battleground in determining its trajectory for the next quarter.