Toncoin Price Tumbles Amid UAE Visa Scandal Fallout

Toncoin (TON) finds itself at a critical crossroads, battered by a severe credibility crisis and a significant technical downturn. The cryptocurrency's price has taken a sharp hit, fueled by the fallout from a misleading marketing campaign involving UAE golden visas. This has triggered a massive loss of investor confidence, a plunge in trading volume, and a deeply bearish outlook across technical charts.

The Catalyst A Golden Visa Scandal Unravels

The crisis ignited when the TON Foundation made the explosive claim that staking TON tokens could secure a 10-year UAE golden visa for investors. The announcement, spearheaded by CEO Max Crown, was swiftly and publicly refuted by UAE authorities. Officials clarified that their visa programs are tied to traditional investments, not cryptocurrency speculation, and that the TON Foundation lacked the necessary licensing for such activities.

The backlash was immediate and fierce. The UAE's regulatory bodies, including VARA, ADGM, and SCA, confirmed that crypto staking is a regulated activity requiring licenses that the TON Foundation does not possess. This exposed the project to potential enforcement actions in the crucial Middle Eastern market.

The community's trust was shattered. Prominent ecosystem members like Hipo Finance publicly condemned the move:

Recently, the CEO of the TON Foundation, claimed that individuals can receive a 10-year UAE Golden Visa by staking TON. Shortly after, official UAE authorities publicly denied this claim, and the [foundation] clarified on its blog that the initiative is a… — Hipo (@hipofinance)

The TON Foundation later attempted to walk back the statement, clarifying the initiative was an independent project without official UAE backing, as highlighted by a report from Cryptonews.com. However, the damage to its reputation was already done, revealing what many see as either gross incompetence or deliberate market manipulation.

Technical Analysis A Bearish Storm Gathers

On the technical front, the picture is equally grim. TON is trading below all its major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), a strong bearish signal:

• 20-day EMA: $2.866
• 50-day EMA: $2.981
• 100-day EMA: $3.179
• 200-day EMA: $3.701

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 42.02. While not yet in extreme oversold territory, it indicates that the coin is vulnerable to further declines as the credibility crisis deepens. Meanwhile, the MACD indicators flash warning signs. The MACD line is hovering near zero, suggesting rapidly fading momentum, and a negative histogram points to significant bearish acceleration.

Market Response Volume Plummets as Institutions Exit

The market metrics confirm a flight of capital. TON's 24-hour trading volume has collapsed by nearly 50% to around $330 million. This dramatic drop, coupled with a low volume-to-market-cap ratio of 4.85%, strongly suggests that institutional investors are exiting their positions rather than viewing the dip as a buying opportunity. This institutional withdrawal validates the bearish technical signals and underscores the severity of the scandal's impact.

Key Levels to Watch Support and Resistance Zones

The survival of Toncoin in the short term hinges on a few critical price levels. The most significant support is the $2.70 - $2.75 zone. A breakdown below this level could trigger a more profound collapse. Further support lies at the $2.60-$2.65 and $2.40-$2.50 ranges, which correspond to historical accumulation zones and previous cycle lows.

On the upside, any recovery attempt faces immediate resistance at the 20-day EMA ($2.866). A more formidable wall of resistance is clustered between the 50-day EMA ($2.981) and the 100-day EMA ($3.179), reflecting the deep fundamental damage done to the project.

Community in Uproar Social Sentiment Turns Sour

The scandal has unified the community, but not in a positive way. Social media analysis reveals that roughly 60% of sentiment is negative, with discussions shifting from price speculation to demands for governance accountability and leadership changes.

Users expressed a mix of anger and disbelief:

NO, UAE is NOT OFFERING GOLDEN VISAS TO TON STAKERS!🇦🇪 Authorities clarify this because, They want traditional investments for golden visas, not crypto speculation. This makes sense but what about TON? I was going to stake and get that visa. makes fools… — Henry (@LordOfAlts)

Another user commented on the audacity of the campaign:

[TON] just pulled the wildest marketing campaign in crypto this year😂 Yesterday, they dropped a bomb on their site: Stake TON for 3 years and get a golden UAE visa. Everyone went crazy. Even my friends started staking lol Price moved, and attention certainly was there But… — Vlad 👾 (@vladsvitanko)

This widespread backlash and erosion of trust among developers and users create further uncertainty about the foundation's strategic direction.

Whats Next A 90 Day Forecast for TON

Analysts have laid out three potential scenarios for the next 90 days:

• Bull Case (25% Probability): A leadership accountability rally. If the TON Foundation takes decisive action, including leadership changes and transparent governance reforms, the price could recover toward the $3.20 - $3.50 range.

• Base Case (55% Probability): An extended credibility crisis. If the foundation fails to address the core issues, TON will likely drift lower toward the $2.40 - $2.60 support zone as reputational damage festers.

• Bear Case (20% Probability): A complete foundation collapse. In the event of severe regulatory action or further governance failures, the price could correct sharply toward $2.00 - $2.30.

Ultimately, Toncoin's future depends on its leadership's ability to navigate this self-inflicted crisis. The project is at a tipping point where immediate, transparent action is required to restore confidence and prevent a complete technical and reputational breakdown.