Why Amazon Could Outpace Nvidia And Microsoft By 2030
For the past year, the battle for the title of the world's most valuable company has been a tight race between semiconductor giant Nvidia and cloud computing leader Microsoft. As Nvidia approaches the monumental $4 trillion market cap, it seems to be pulling ahead of its "Magnificent Seven" counterparts. However, a deeper look suggests that e-commerce and cloud infrastructure titan Amazon (AMZN) may have the strongest potential to claim the top spot in the long run.
Let's explore how Amazon is weaving artificial intelligence into its core operations and why its growth trajectory could lead to a significant valuation expansion over the next decade.
The AI Engine Powering Amazon's Future Growth
Amazon's sprawling ecosystem covers everything from e-commerce and logistics to cloud computing and streaming. While AI can enhance all these areas, its most transformative impact is expected in the company's e-commerce and cloud segments.
The e-commerce division, which generated over $250 billion in the last year, has historically operated on thin margins due to logistics costs and consumer demand fluctuations. To address this, Amazon is heavily investing in AI-powered robotics to automate warehouse tasks. CEO Andy Jassy has also indicated that robotics could eventually play a key role in package transportation and delivery. An analysis from Morgan Stanley suggests robotics could slash costs in a single warehouse by 25%, a saving that would scale into billions across Amazon's global operations.
In its cloud computing division, Amazon Web Services (AWS), the company is making significant strides with AI. A key move has been its $8 billion investment in the AI start-up Anthropic. Anthropic's technology has been rapidly integrated into AWS, already delivering a noticeable boost to the division's sales and profitability.
Image source: Amazon Investor Relations.
A Contrasting Valuation and Competitive Landscape
For the last couple of years, Nvidia's GPUs have been the undisputed hardware for generative AI. While this has propelled its valuation, the competitive landscape is shifting. Both Nvidia and Microsoft may struggle to maintain their dominance.
Microsoft's exclusive-like partnership with OpenAI is showing signs of becoming less exclusive, as the ChatGPT creator is exploring collaborations with competitors like Alphabet and Oracle. In the chip sector, major tech players including Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet are developing their own custom silicon, reducing their reliance on Nvidia. Furthermore, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is emerging as a strong competitor in the data center and AI chip markets.
In contrast, Amazon's valuation metrics are showing positive trends. The company's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio suggests that investors are beginning to recognize its unique position to monetize its vast ecosystem with AI.
AMZN PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts
This growing confidence indicates that Amazon's market cap could expand significantly as AI becomes the central pillar of its business transformation.
Image source: Getty Images.
Is Amazon Stock a Smart Long-Term Investment?
While Amazon stock is not necessarily a bargain at its current price, it presents a compelling buy-and-hold opportunity for long-term investors. It appears the massive upside potential that AI offers has not yet been fully factored into its stock price.
Given the long-term, value-adding impact AI is projected to have on Amazon's core e-commerce and cloud businesses, the company seems to be at the beginning of a new chapter of accelerated growth. For this reason, investors may continue to value Amazon at a premium, positioning it to become the world's most valuable company by the early 2030s.
