AI Predicts When Quantum Computers Will Crack Bitcoin Security

The Looming Quantum Threat to Bitcoin

The rapid advancement of quantum computing is casting a long shadow over the future security of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC). Unlike the computers we use today, quantum machines are designed to solve certain complex problems at speeds that are exponentially faster, posing a direct threat to the cryptographic foundations of the Bitcoin network.

Specifically, a powerful quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm could break the elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) that protects Bitcoin wallets. This would allow an attacker to derive a private key from a public key within hours, placing any exposed funds at immediate risk. While experts have long debated the timeline, many agree that the next decade is a critical period for addressing this vulnerability, as previously reported.

AI Forecasts the Quantum Breaking Point

To get a clearer picture, insights were gathered from OpenAI's advanced artificial intelligence model, ChatGPT-5. The AI provided a detailed projection, outlining a gradual but significant increase in risk over the coming decades. The model identifies the mid-to-late 2030s as the most probable timeframe for the emergence of “cryptographically relevant” quantum computers capable of breaking Bitcoin’s encryption.

Here is a breakdown of the cumulative probability estimates provided by the AI:

• 2025–2029: Less than a 5% chance. The risk is minimal due to current device limitations and immature error correction technology.
• 2030–2034: A 15% to 25% chance. This assumes key breakthroughs in error correction and qubit stability are achieved.
• 2035–2039: A 45% to 60% chance. This is the most likely window, with hardware scaling and algorithmic improvements expected to enable the first practical demonstrations of key recovery.
• 2040s: An 80% to 95% chance. By this decade, the technology is expected to be mature enough to pose a consistent threat.
• By 2050: Nearly a 99% chance. The model suggests that, barring a major technological catastrophe, the threat will be almost certain.

Bitcoin code cracking timeline. Source: ChatGPT

Timeline Accelerants and Proactive Defenses

The AI model cautions that certain technological milestones could significantly accelerate this timeline. These include the development of large-scale fault-tolerant qubits, machines with millions of low-error qubits, a full public demonstration of Shor’s algorithm, or government advisories shifting from planning to urgent migration to quantum-resistant standards.

To mitigate these looming risks, ChatGPT recommends a proactive approach for the Bitcoin community and its users:

• Immediate Actions: Audit all addresses, avoid reusing keys, and move funds away from any potentially exposed keys.
• Mid-Term Goals (2026–2029): Begin piloting post-quantum or hybrid signature schemes.
• Long-Term Strategy (2032–2035): Complete the migration of critical custody infrastructure to quantum-resistant solutions, ensuring the entire network is fully prepared by 2035.