AI Chatbots Predict Elon Musks Trillion Dollar Payout Odds

What are the odds that Elon Musk will eventually receive a payout worth a potential $1 trillion in Tesla shares, assuming his ambitious new pay package is approved? We decided to ask the leading AI chatbots for their analysis.

Tesla's proposed compensation plan for its CEO is tied to several massive milestones. For the full payout, the company would need to reach an $8.5 trillion market capitalization, generate $400 billion in adjusted EBITDA, and achieve widespread deployment of its robotaxis, Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscriptions, Optimus robots, and electric vehicles.

It is an immense challenge, but one Musk has a history of meeting. He previously hit all 12 milestones in his older pay package before it was challenged in court. With AI and robotics central to Tesla's new master plan, we prompted Grok, ChatGPT, and Gemini to weigh in on Musk's chances of success this time around. The answers varied dramatically, with Grok being the most confident and Gemini giving Musk's chances as "effectively zero."

Here is a breakdown of what each AI chatbot predicted.

Grok's Optimistic Outlook

Of the three AIs, Grok from xAI — Musk's own AI company — was unsurprisingly the most optimistic. Grok assigned a 70% chance that Tesla would meet its vehicle delivery goals and a 35% chance of hitting the necessary FSD subscriber numbers. It was even more confident about the new ventures, giving the Optimus robot sales an 80% chance and the robotaxi milestone a 50% chance.

For the financial targets, Grok estimated a 30% likelihood of reaching the EBITDA goal and a 25% chance of hitting the market cap target. Initially, Grok calculated a 15% overall probability that Musk would meet all requirements for the full $1 trillion payout within the next decade. However, after being provided with Tesla's SEC filing on the matter, the chatbot revised its prediction upward to 25%.

ChatGPT's Middle Ground Prediction

The relationship between OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Elon Musk has been famously contentious since Musk's departure from the company he cofounded. Despite this, OpenAI's ChatGPT offered a more moderate, though still low, probability of success compared to its peers.

ChatGPT assigned 20% and 25% odds to Tesla meeting the vehicle delivery and FSD subscriber goals, respectively. It was most confident in the robotaxi milestone, with 40% odds, and gave the Optimus bot milestone a 30% likelihood. Regarding the financial targets, ChatGPT was less optimistic, giving Tesla a 10% chance of reaching its EBITDA goal and just a 5% chance of achieving the $8.5 trillion market cap.

Overall, ChatGPT calculated a 2% chance that Musk would successfully hit every target. It maintained this percentage even after reviewing the complete SEC filing.

Gemini's Skeptical Analysis

Google's Gemini was the most pessimistic of the three chatbots, believing Musk was highly unlikely to succeed. Unlike the others, Gemini framed its predictions in terms of "less than." It stated there was a less than 10% chance of Tesla reaching its vehicle delivery goal and a less than 20% chance for FSD subscribers. For the bot and robotaxi milestones, it estimated less than 15% and 5% odds, respectively.

Gemini was equally doubtful about Tesla's financial prospects, assigning less than 5% odds for the company reaching both its EBITDA and market cap targets. When asked for the overall probability of Musk meeting all goals, Gemini's response was stark: "Effectively zero." After being prompted to review the SEC filing, it declined to provide a numerical probability, stating there were too many unpredictable factors.

Not an All or Nothing Deal

While the AI predictions paint a challenging picture for the full payout, the good news for Musk is that the pay package is structured with intermediate milestones. He can unlock smaller payouts along the way without having to achieve every single goal.

For example, the market capitalization milestones begin when Tesla reaches a $2 trillion valuation, with subsequent payouts at every additional $500 billion increase. Similarly, the adjusted EBITDA milestones start at $50 billion. This tiered structure means that even if Musk doesn't hit all the targets, as the AIs predict, he still stands to receive substantial compensation for partial success.