AI Predicts Every NFL Week 1 Matchup
As the NFL season kicks off, the buzz around NFL Week 1 odds and matchups is at an all-time high. To add a new layer to the predictions, RotoWire.com turned to ChatGPT to forecast the outcomes for the entire Week 1 slate.
How the AI Simulation Worked
We conducted a detailed experiment by running 10 separate simulations for each matchup. For each simulation, we prompted the AI to generate a final score based on the current NFL rosters as of September 4, 2025. From these results, we calculated the win-loss record over the 10 simulations and the average margin of victory (MOV) for each team when they won. Here’s a look at what the AI predicted.
ChatGPT's NFL Week 1 Predictions
| Matchup | Result (10 Sims) | Team 1 Avg. MOV | Team 2 Avg. MOV |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL at PHI | 6-4 Eagles | 7.8 (PHI) | 7.75 (DAL) |
| KC vs. LAC | 8-2 Chiefs | 8.5 (KC) | 3.5 (LAC) |
| TB at ATL | 7-2-1 Buccaneers | 4.9 (TB) | 3.0 (ATL) |
| MIA at IND | 6-4 Dolphins | 4.3 (MIA) | 3.5 (IND) |
| LV at NE | 5-3-2 Patriots | 3.7 (LV) | 6.8 (NE) |
| PIT at NYJ | 6-4 Steelers | 4.0 (PIT) | 4.0 (NYJ) |
| TEN at DEN | 9-1 Broncos | 2.0 (TEN) | 9.2 (DEN) |
| DET at GB | 5-5 tie | 3.4 (DET) | 3.4 (GB) |
| BAL at BUF | 7-3 Bills | 3.7 (BAL) | 3.7 (BUF) |
| CIN at CLE | 7-3 Bengals | 7.0 (CIN) | 4.0 (CLE) |
| ARI at NO | 7-3 Cardinals | 2.0 (ARI) | 8.7 (NO) |
| NYG at WAS | 7-3 Commanders | 6.6 (NYG) | 4.3 (WAS) |
| SF at SEA | 8-2 49ers | 9.8 (SF) | 2.5 (SEA) |
| HOU at LAR | 9-1 Texans | 9.0 (HOU) | 3.0 (LAR) |
| MIN at CHI | 6-4 Vikings | 3.3 (MIN) | 6.0 (CHI) |
Projected Nail-Biters and Toss-Ups
It's important to remember that AI simulations can offer a different perspective than traditional NFL betting spreads. Our queries were run on September 4th with the most current rosters available at the time.
The most fascinating result was the NFC North clash between the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers, which ended in a perfect 5-5 split. Even more telling, both teams had an identical average margin of victory of 3.4 points. This aligns with expert opinions and futures markets on sports betting apps, which see this as a very tight divisional race.
Another surprisingly close matchup projected by the AI is the season opener between the Dallas Cowboys and the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. Despite the Eagles' status and the recent drama surrounding Dallas with the Micah Parsons trade, the AI gave the Eagles only a slight 6-4 edge. The average margin of victory was razor-thin, with the Eagles at 7.8 points and the Cowboys at 7.75.
Other games projected to be tight include:
- Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets: The AI gives the Steelers a 6-4 advantage as Aaron Rodgers makes his debut for Pittsburgh against his old team.
- Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts: The Dolphins are slight underdogs in betting markets, but the AI favors them 6-4.
- Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: The AI predicts a 6-4 Vikings victory, but interestingly, Chicago’s average MOV in their projected wins was significantly higher (6.0 vs. 3.3).
Teams Projected for a Dominant Start
On the other end of the spectrum, the AI simulations identified several teams poised for a blowout victory in Week 1. The Denver Broncos were the most dominant, winning nine of 10 simulations against the Tennessee Titans with an impressive average MOV of 9.2 points. The Houston Texans were similarly dominant over the Los Angeles Rams, also taking nine of 10 matchups with an average MOV of 9.0. The San Francisco 49ers rounded out the top performers, winning eight of 10 against the Seattle Seahawks with a massive 9.8 average MOV.
Week 1 NFL Projections Q&A
Q: How did ChatGPT simulate NFL Week 1 games? A: RotoWire ran 10 simulations for every Week 1 matchup using ChatGPT, with rosters updated as of September 4, 2025. Each game produced projected scores, a winner, and a calculated average margin of victory (MOV). This allowed us to compare not only who wins most often but also how decisively they win.
Q: Which teams dominated the ChatGPT simulations? A: Several teams stood out in the AI's projections. The Denver Broncos won nine out of 10 games against the Tennessee Titans, with an average margin of victory (MOV) of +9.2. The Houston Texans also looked strong, taking nine of 10 over the Los Angeles Rams with an average MOV of +9.0. San Francisco rounded out the dominant group, winning eight of 10 against Seattle with nearly a +10 average MOV.
Q: What were the closest or most balanced matchups in the simulations? A: A few games were nearly even and one was tied after 10 simulated games. The Lions and Packers split 5–5, with each side showing an identical 3.4 MOV. Philadelphia and Dallas played a razor-thin series as well, with the Eagles winning 6–4 but both sides averaging about a touchdown margin in their victories (7.8 for PHI, 7.75 for DAL). Pittsburgh and the Jets also split tightly, with each team's average MOV set at 4.0.
