Bitcoin Price Teeters on Edge Amid Tariff News
Bitcoin at a Critical Juncture
Bitcoin is currently facing a pivotal moment, with its price declining by 2.78% to $105,191. This drop brings BTC to a crucial test of its key 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $104,901. The market's sensitivity is heightened by significant macroeconomic developments, including President Trump's sudden cancellation of the 100% tariffs on China, where he stated, “we’ll be fine with China.” This volatility is further compounded by a massive $1.2 billion liquidation event that has triggered widespread market deleveraging. Adding to the uncertainty, prediction market Polymarket currently shows 52% odds of Bitcoin falling below the $100,000 mark this month.
Technical Analysis A Test of the 200-Day EMA
The current price of $105,191 represents a significant pullback, down approximately 14% from October's all-time high of $126,198. The 200-day EMA at $104,901 is now acting as a make-or-break support level, which also aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Trading volume during this correction stands at 29.24K BTC.
A look at other technical indicators presents a mixed but cautious picture:
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): At 52.18, the RSI is in neutral territory.
- Moving Averages: Short-term moving averages are bearish, with the 20-day EMA at $114,259, the 50-day at $114,672, and the 100-day at $113,190 all acting as overhead resistance.
- MACD: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence is bearish at -1,579.16, but it is converging with its signal line, suggesting a potential shift in momentum.
- Average True Range (ATR): An extremely high ATR confirms the potential for massive volatility ahead.
Macro Shocks Trump Cancels Tariffs Amid Market Purge
In a significant policy shift, President Trump confirmed the cancellation of 100% tariffs on China. This was echoed by White House Advisor Hassett, who stated, “We’re not in a trade war with China,” while also suggesting that “three Fed rate cuts would be a good start.” This news coincided with a $1.2 billion liquidation cascade across the market as investors sought safe-haven assets.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇨🇳 President Trump says "no" when asked if China tariffs will stand. — Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru)
Despite the purge, experts see underlying strength. Speaking with Cryptonews, Farzam Ehsani, CEO of VALR, noted that Bitcoin is “stabilizing above $110,000 after historic $19 billion leverage purge reset traders’ positioning.” He emphasized that “structural demand for BTC remained resilient,” pointing to over $4.5 billion in spot BTC ETF inflows in October and stablecoin liquidity crossing $300 billion.
Ehsani also highlighted that “gold and Bitcoin increasingly viewed as alternatives to the US dollar’s reserve dominance,” driven by investor unease with fiscal deficits and persistent inflation. Other prominent figures like Arthur Hayes and Grant Cardone are reportedly viewing the dip as a buying opportunity.
$BTC on sale. If this US regional banking wobble grows to a crisis be ready for a 2023-like bailout. And then go shopping assuming you have spare capital. I got my list, what’s on yours fam? — Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes)
Market Metrics and Social Sentiment
Bitcoin's market capitalization holds at $2.13 trillion despite a 4.1% dip. Trading volume surged by over 26% to $105.58 billion, and its market dominance rose to 58.42% as altcoins underperformed. Social metrics from LunarCrush show a surge in engagement and mentions, though overall sentiment has slightly declined. Analysts are closely watching the $100,000 level, which many consider the “final price support during this bull cycle.” A break below this psychological barrier could trigger a more significant sell-off.
🚨 The critical level for BTC is $100K! The $100K level in the BTC is the lower price limit set by traders and has served as the final price support during this bull cycle. Breaking below $100,000 could trigger a significant sell-off… 🩸 — PRIME 𝕏 (@primenews_en)
Future Outlook Three Potential Scenarios for Bitcoin
Bitcoin's next move hinges on its ability to defend the 200-day EMA. Based on this, there are three primary scenarios:
- Bullish Recovery (60% Probability): If the $104,901 support level holds, bolstered by the tariff relief, a recovery toward the $113,000–$120,000 range is likely. This would require reclaiming the $110,000 level first.
- Deeper Correction (70% Probability): If Bitcoin breaks below $103,500, it could trigger further selling toward the $100,000–$102,500 support zone, with a potential extension down to the $95,000 area.
- Extended Consolidation (30% Probability): The price could remain range-bound between $103,500 and $108,000, allowing for institutional accumulation before a more decisive move.
Ultimately, Bitcoin is at a decision point. Bulls must defend the $104,901 support, or the market could face a deeper correction. While macro factors like the tariff cancellation are bullish, Ehsani warns that the “geopolitical environment may need to cool down further before sustained upside resumes.”
