Why Microsoft Will Be The Next 4 Trillion Stock
Nvidia has been on an incredible run, making history as the first company to reach a $4 trillion market capitalization. As it claims the title of the world's most valuable company, the big question for investors is: who's next?
While several tech giants are in the race, one company stands out as the most likely to join this exclusive club. The contender poised to reach a $4 trillion valuation next is Microsoft. Here’s a closer look at why.
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Why Microsoft Has the Clear Edge
Most members of the prestigious "Magnificent Seven" group boast market caps over $1 trillion, but the race to $4 trillion is currently a two-horse race behind Nvidia. Apple is valued at $3.16 trillion, while Microsoft is even closer at $3.72 trillion. The others are simply too far behind to be considered the next in line.
From a purely mathematical standpoint, Microsoft is the clear frontrunner. However, the company’s fundamental performance gives it an even stronger case, especially when compared to its closest rival, Apple. The iPhone maker is currently facing significant headwinds due to U.S. trade policies. The Trump administration's focus on reshoring manufacturing and imposing aggressive tariffs on goods from China poses a direct challenge to Apple's supply chain, which is heavily reliant on Asian manufacturing.
Furthermore, Apple has been perceived as lagging behind Microsoft and other tech peers in the critical artificial intelligence (AI) race. While Apple remains a formidable company for the long term, its short-term growth prospects appear less certain.
In contrast, Microsoft is firing on all cylinders. The company's latest financial update for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025 was exceptionally strong, driven by explosive growth in its cloud computing and AI divisions. Microsoft continues to gain market share on Amazon in the cloud industry and provided robust guidance, signaling high demand for its services even in a challenging macroeconomic climate. Given these factors, the smart money is on Microsoft to outperform Apple in the coming months.
While Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms are also performing well, their respective market caps of $2.36 trillion, $2.15 trillion, and $1.82 trillion place them too far back to realistically beat Microsoft to the $4 trillion mark.
To $4 Trillion and Beyond
Reaching a $4 trillion valuation isn't the finish line; it's just a milestone. The long-term outlook for Microsoft suggests there is plenty of growth ahead. In fact, here's another prediction: Microsoft has the potential to reach a $10 trillion valuation within the next decade.
Achieving that would require a compound annual growth rate of at least 10.4% from its current level. This is a challenging feat, but Microsoft is well-equipped to accomplish it by continuing to lead in its two primary growth sectors: AI and cloud computing.
We are likely still in the early days of these technological revolutions. According to Amazon CEO Andy Jassy, over 85% of IT spending still happens on-premises, representing a massive runway for cloud adoption. Meanwhile, the AI era was supercharged by the launch of ChatGPT from OpenAI—a company heavily backed by Microsoft. Both AI and cloud technologies are becoming essential for businesses everywhere to cut costs and boost efficiency.
In the future, a business that doesn't leverage cloud and AI services might be as rare as a modern company that doesn't use computers. Microsoft is at the forefront of this transformation. The company has a powerful competitive advantage due to high switching costs and a proven track record of thriving amidst fierce competition from Alphabet and Amazon.
Investors shouldn't focus solely on the $4 trillion milestone. The real reason to consider Microsoft stock is its powerful and durable growth trajectory that will likely continue long after it crosses that mark.
John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Prosper Junior Bakiny has positions in Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
