AI Usage Declines When School Is Out

For years, teachers have been grappling with the challenge of students using large language model (LLM) chatbots like ChatGPT to complete their homework. This trend is a component of a larger issue, where increased screen time, now amplified by AI, is contributing to what many experts call a crisis in student literacy, with reading abilities among US children reaching all-time lows. The problem extends to higher education, where university professors have noted a significant drop-off in reading skills among new students.

However, it appears this dependency is a two-way street. As students rely on AI for their academic tasks, AI companies seemingly depend on this student user base to drive their traffic.

Data Reveals a Scholastic Schedule

Data from AI platform OpenRouter, which provides access to various AI models, shows a dramatic drop in ChatGPT queries from late May to early June, coinciding with the end of the school year. While OpenRouter's data doesn't cover every ChatGPT user, its pool of 2.5 million users offers a significant snapshot of overall AI usage trends.

The daily statistics are telling. ChatGPT usage peaked on May 27, right in the middle of finals season, with users generating 97.4 billion tokens. A token is a unit of data that OpenAI defines as roughly four English characters. In May, users generated an average of 79.6 billion tokens per day. This number plummeted to just 36.7 billion per day for the same period in June, when schools are typically on summer break.

Interestingly, the data also reveals noticeable dips in usage during weekends throughout the school year, further strengthening the link to academic schedules.

A Pattern of Academic Reliance

Though OpenRouter's data has its limits, it is a key source of public information on GPT usage, referenced by both Cornell scholars and VC investors. The correlation is especially compelling because this is not the first time such a pattern has been observed.

In 2023, Business Insider first proposed that summer vacation was causing a drop in ChatGPT queries. This theory was later supported when Bloomberg reported in mid-September that traffic was rising again as students returned to school. Furthermore, a study by Rutgers scholars who analyzed 10,000 ChatGPT prompts found that student interactions with the bot were highest during the school year and dropped off significantly during spring break and summer, leading them to conclude that "most usage was academic."

The Financial Paradox of Student Users

In a strange twist, the temporary loss of its largest user base over the summer might actually benefit OpenAI financially in the short term. A 2024 financial analysis revealed that the company spent $9 billion to generate $4 billion in revenue, with the difference attributed to the immense compute costs of processing tokens. In essence, OpenAI spent $2.25 for every dollar it earned, explaining why the company doesn't anticipate a positive cash flow until 2029. The summer slowdown provides a brief respite from these massive operational costs.

The recent decision to launch GPT-5 might also be a strategic move, as the initial surge in usage will be more manageable without the peak demand from students.

AI's Strategic Push into Education

AI's significant presence in academics is not accidental. Reports from last July indicated that major AI companies like Microsoft, OpenAI, and Anthropic entered into a $23 million "partnership" with the American Federation of Teachers to integrate AI into classrooms. This occurred while the Trump administration, which had previously awarded OpenAI a $500 billion contract, withheld over $6 billion in federal funding for schools.

As the summer winds down, it will be fascinating to see how the usage data trends in September when students—and the AI chatbots that have become integral to their education—return to the classroom.